34.4. Market risk

4.1 Hedging policy and financial derivatives

During the course of its general business activities, the Volkswagen Group is exposed to foreign currency, interest rate, commodity price, equity price and fund price risk. Corporate policy is to limit or eliminate such risk by means of hedging. Generally, all necessary hedging transactions with the exception of the Scania, MAN and Porsche Holding GmbH (Salzburg) subgroups are executed or coordinated centrally by Group Treasury.

DISCLOSURES ON GAINS AND LOSSES FROM FAIR VALUE HEDGES

Fair value hedges involve hedging against the risk of changes in the carrying amount of balance sheet items. As of the reporting date, both hedging instruments and hedged items are measured at fair value in relation to the hedged risk, and the resulting changes in value are recognized on a net basis in the corresponding income statement item. In the previous year, income from fair value hedges amounted to €7 million.

The following table shows the gains and losses from (fair value) hedges by risk type during the fiscal year:

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DISCLOSURES ON GAINS AND LOSSES FROM FAIR VALUE HEDGES IN 2018

€ million

 

Hedge ineffectiveness in hedging relationships

 

 

 

Hedging interest rate risk

 

 

Other financial result

 

Other operating result

 

34

Hedging currency risk

 

 

Other financial result

 

Other operating result

 

−30

Combined interest rate and currency risk hedging

 

 

Other financial result

 

0

Other operating result

 

5

DISCLOSURES ON GAINS AND LOSSES FROM CASH FLOW HEDGES

Cash flow hedges are used to hedge against risks of fluctuations in future cash flows. These cash flows may arise from a recognized asset or liability, or from a highly probable forecast transaction. The following table shows the gains and losses from cash flow hedges by risk type:

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DISCLOSURES ON GAINS AND LOSSES FROM CASH FLOW HEDGES IN 2018

€ million

 

2018

 

 

 

Hedging interest rate risk

 

 

Gains or losses from changes in fair value of hedging instruments within hedge accounting

 

 

Recognized in equity

 

−38

Recognized in profit or loss

 

0

Reclassification from the cash flow hedge reserve to profit or loss

 

 

Due to early discontinuation of the hedging relationships

 

Due to realization of the hedged item

 

2

Hedging currency risk

 

 

Gains or losses from changes in fair value of hedging instruments within hedge accounting

 

 

Recognized in equity

 

−1,367

Recognized in profit or loss

 

−7

Reclassification from the cash flow hedge reserve to profit or loss

 

 

Due to early discontinuation of the hedging relationships

 

−1

Due to realization of the hedged item

 

−1,074

Combined interest rate and currency risk hedging

 

 

Gains or losses from changes in fair value of hedging instruments within hedge accounting

 

 

Recognized in equity

 

8

Recognized in profit or loss

 

0

Reclassification from the cash flow hedge reserve to profit or loss

 

 

Due to early discontinuation of the hedging relationships

 

Due to realization of the hedged item

 

−8

Hedging commodity price risk

 

 

Gains or losses from changes in fair value of hedging instruments within hedge accounting

 

 

Recognized in equity

 

−5

Recognized in profit or loss

 

Reclassification from the cash flow hedge reserve to profit or loss

 

 

Due to early discontinuation of the hedging relationships

 

Due to realization of the hedged item

 

1

The table presents effects taken to equity, reduced by deferred taxes.

The gain or loss from changes in the fair value of hedging instruments used in hedge accounting corresponds to the basis for determining hedge ineffectiveness. The ineffective portion of a cash flow hedge is the income or expense resulting from changes in the fair value of the hedging instrument that exceed the changes in the fair value of the hedged item. This hedge ineffectiveness is attributable to parameter differences between the hedging instrument and the hedged item. Such income and expenses are recognized in other operating income/ expenses or in the financial result. In fiscal year 2017, ineffectiveness amounting to €−11 million was recognized in the income statement. The Volkswagen Group uses two different methods to present market risk from nonderivative and derivative financial instruments in accordance with IFRS 7. For quantitative risk measurement, interest rate and foreign currency risk in the Volkswagen Financial Services subgroup are measured using a value-at-risk (VaR) model on the basis of a historical simulation, while market risk in the other Group companies is determined using a sensitivity analysis. The value-at-risk calculation indicates the size of the maximum potential loss on the portfolio as a whole within a time horizon of 40 days, measured at a confidence level of 99 %. To provide the basis for this calculation, all cash flows from nonderivative and derivative financial instruments are aggregated into an interest rate gap analysis. The historical market data used in calculating value at risk covers a period of 1,000 trading days. The sensitivity analysis calculates the effect on equity and profit or loss by modifying risk variables within the respective market risks.

DISCLOSURES ON HEDGING INSTRUMENTS IN HEDGE ACCOUNTING

The Volkswagen Group regularly enters into hedging instruments to hedge against changes in the carrying amount of balance sheet items. The summary below shows the notional amounts, fair values and base variables for determining the ineffectiveness of hedging instruments entered into to hedge against the risk of changes in carrying amounts in fair value hedges:

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DISCLOSURES ON HEDGING TRANSACTIONS IN FAIR VALUE HEDGES IN 2018

€ million

 

Notional amount

 

Other assets

 

Other liabilities

 

Fair value changes to determine hedge ineffectiveness

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hedging interest rate risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Interest rate swaps and interest rate options contracts

 

48,609

 

467

 

61

 

309

Hedging currency risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Currency forwards, currency options, cross-currency swaps

 

6,811

 

222

 

75

 

95

Combined interest rate and currency risk hedging

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cross-currency interest rate swaps

 

901

 

58

 

0

 

108

In addition, hedging instruments are entered into to hedge against the risk of fluctuations in future cash flows. The table below shows the notional amounts, fair values and base variables for determining the ineffectiveness of hedging instruments designated as cash flow value hedges.

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DISCLOSURES ON HEDGING TRANSACTIONS IN CASH FLOW HEDGES IN 2018

€ million

 

Notional amount

 

Other assets

 

Other liabilities

 

Fair value changes to determine hedge ineffectiveness

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hedging interest rate risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Interest rate swaps

 

12,477

 

39

 

15

 

17

Hedging currency risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Currency forwards and cross-currency swaps

 

66,505

 

1,834

 

836

 

2,794

Currency options

 

17,956

 

187

 

91

 

69

Combined interest rate and currency risk hedging

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cross-currency interest rate swaps

 

1,424

 

44

 

11

 

35

The change in the fair value to determine ineffectiveness corresponds to the change in fair value of the designated component.

DISCLOSURES ON HEDGED ITEMS IN HEDGE ACCOUNTING

In addition to disclosures on hedging instruments, disclosures are also required on the hedged items, broken down by risk category and type of designation for hedge accounting. Below follows a list of hedged items designated in fair value hedges, separately from those designated in cash flow hedges:

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DISCLOSURES ON HEDGED ITEMS IN FAIR VALUE HEDGES IN 2018

€ million

 

Carrying amount

 

Cumulative hedge adjustments

 

Hedge adjustments (current period/fiscal year)

 

Cumulative hedge adjustments from discontinued hedging relationships

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hedging interest rate risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial services receivables

 

19,311

 

−10

 

20

 

Other financial assets

 

 

17

 

17

 

Financial liabilities

 

31,670

 

220

 

127

 

Other financial liabilities

 

 

 

 

Hedging currency risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trade receivables

 

 

 

 

Financial services receivables

 

 

 

 

3

Other financial assets

 

640

 

28

 

77

 

Financial liabilities

 

26

 

36

 

38

 

Other financial liabilities

 

 

 

 

Trade payables

 

 

 

 

Other provisions

 

 

 

 

Combined interest rate and currency risk hedging

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial services receivables

 

 

4

 

4

 

Other financial assets

 

714

 

−32

 

−4

 

Financial liabilities

 

166

 

1

 

1

 

Other financial liabilities

 

 

 

 

  (XLS:) Download

DISCLOSURES ON HEDGED ITEMS IN CASH FLOW HEDGES IN 2018

 

 

 

 

RESERVE FOR

€ million

 

Changes in fair value to determine hedge ineffectiveness

 

Active cash flow hedges

 

Discontinued cash flow hedges

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hedging interest rate risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

Designated components

 

26

 

19

 

0

Non-designated components

 

 

 

Deferred taxes

 

 

−1

 

0

Total hedging interest rate risk

 

26

 

19

 

0

Hedging currency risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

Designated components

 

2,526

 

2,524

 

0

Non-designated components

 

 

−885

 

−9

Deferred taxes

 

 

−478

 

1

Total hedging currency risk

 

2,526

 

1,162

 

−8

Combined interest rate and currency risk hedging

 

 

 

 

 

 

Designated components

 

27

 

2

 

−26

Non-designated components

 

 

 

Deferred taxes

 

 

0

 

8

Total hedging combined interest rate and currency risk

 

27

 

1

 

−18

Hedging commodity price risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

Designated components

 

 

 

7

Non-designated components

 

 

 

Deferred taxes

 

 

 

−2

Total hedging commodity price risk

 

 

 

5

CHANGES IN THE RESERVE

When accounting for cash flow hedges, the designated effective portions of a hedging relationship are recognized in OCI I. Any changes in excess of the fair value of the designated component are recognized as ineffectiveness through profit or loss.

The table below shows a reconciliation to the reserve:

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CHANGES IN THE RESERVE FOR CASH FLOW HEDGES (OCI I)
FROM JANUARY 1 TO DECEMBER 31, 2018

€ million

 

Interest rate risk

 

Currency risk

 

Interest rate/currency risk

 

Commodity price risk

 

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Balance at Jan. 1, 2018

 

55

 

3,533

 

−16

 

9

 

3,581

Gains or losses from effective hedging relationships

 

−38

 

−414

 

8

 

−5

 

−450

Reclassifications due to changes in whether the hedged item is expected to occur

 

 

−1

 

 

 

−1

Reclassifications due to realization of the hedged item

 

2

 

−1,335

 

−8

 

1

 

−1,341

Balance at Dec. 31, 2018

 

19

 

1,783

 

−17

 

5

 

1,790

If expectations about the occurrence of the hedged item change, the arrangement is reclassified by terminating the hedging relationship prematurely. Changed expectations are primarily caused by a change in projections for hedging sales revenue.

Changes in the fair values of non-designated components of a derivative are likewise always recognized immediately through profit or loss. An exception from this principle is any change in the fair value attributable to non-designated time values of options, to the extent that they relate to the hedged item. Moreover, the Volkswagen Group initially recognizes in equity (hedging costs) changes in the fair values of non-designated forward components in currency forwards and currency hedges attributed to cash flow hedges. This means that the Volkswagen Group recognizes changes in the fair value of the non-designated component or parts thereof immediately through profit or loss only if there is ineffectiveness.

The tables below show a summary of changes in the reserve for hedging costs resulting from the non-designated portions of options and currency hedges:

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CHANGES IN THE RESERVE FOR HEDGING COSTS – NON-DESIGNATED TIME VALUES OF OPTIONS FROM JANUARY 1 TO DECEMBER 31, 2018

€ million

 

Currency risk

 

 

 

Balance at Jan. 1, 2018

 

63

Gains and losses from non-designated time value of options

 

 

Hedged item is recognized at a point in time

 

−86

Reclassification due to realization of the hedged item

 

 

Hedged item is recognized at a point in time

 

23

Balance at Dec. 31, 2018

 

−1

  (XLS:) Download

CHANGES IN THE RESERVE FOR HEDGING COSTS – NON-DESIGNATED FORWARD COMPONENT AND CROSS CURRENCY BASIS SPREAD (CCBS) FROM JANUARY 1 TO DECEMBER 31, 2018

€ million

 

Currency risk

 

 

 

Balance at Jan. 1, 2018

 

Gains and losses from non-designated forward elements and CCBS

 

 

Hedged item is recognized at a point in time

 

−866

Reclassification due to realization of the hedged item

 

 

Hedged item is recognized at a point in time

 

238

Reclassification due to changes in whether the hedged item is expected to occur

 

 

Hedged item is recognized at a point in time

 

0

Balance at Dec. 31, 2018

 

−628

4.2 Market risk in the Volkswagen Group (excluding Volkswagen Financial Services subgroup)

4.2.1 Foreign currency risk

Foreign currency risk in the Volkswagen Group (excluding Volkswagen Financial Services subgroup) is attributable to investments, financing measures and operating activities. Currency forwards, currency options, currency swaps and cross-currency interest rate swaps are used to limit foreign currency risk. These transactions relate to the exchange rate hedging of all material payments covering general business activities that are not made in the functional currency of the respective Group companies. The principle of matching currencies applies to the Group’s financing activities.

Hedging transactions entered into in 2018 as part of foreign currency risk management were amongst others in Argentine pesos, Australian dollars, Brazilian real, sterling, Chinese renminbi, Hong Kong dollars, Indian rupees, Japanese yen, Canadian dollars, Mexican pesos, Norwegian kroner, Polish zloty, Russian rubles, Swedish kronor, Swiss francs, Singapore dollars, South African rand, South Korean won, Taiwan dollars, Czech koruna, Hungarian forints and US dollars.

All nonfunctional currencies in which the Volkswagen Group enters into financial instruments are included as relevant risk variables in the sensitivity analysis in accordance with IFRS 7.

If the functional currencies concerned had appreciated or depreciated by 10 % against the other currencies, the exchange rates shown below would have resulted in the following effects on the hedging reserve in equity and on earnings after tax. It is not appropriate to add together the individual figures, since the results of the various functional currencies concerned are based on different scenarios.

The following table shows the sensitivities of the main currencies in the portfolio as of December 31, 2018:

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Dec. 31, 2018

 

Dec. 31, 2017

€ million

 

+10%

 

−10%

 

+10%

 

−10%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Exchange rate

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EUR/USD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hedging reserve

 

1,329

 

−1,272

 

1,627

 

−1,303

Earnings after tax

 

−449

 

449

 

−365

 

193

EUR/GBP

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hedging reserve

 

960

 

−959

 

1,126

 

−1,124

Earnings after tax

 

−205

 

205

 

−73

 

75

EUR/CNY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hedging reserve

 

729

 

−725

 

515

 

−491

Earnings after tax

 

−159

 

159

 

−58

 

62

EUR/CHF

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hedging reserve

 

312

 

−298

 

246

 

−232

Earnings after tax

 

12

 

−12

 

16

 

−20

EUR/JPY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hedging reserve

 

287

 

−285

 

271

 

−244

Earnings after tax

 

−18

 

18

 

−40

 

20

EUR/CAD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hedging reserve

 

117

 

−113

 

121

 

−113

Earnings after tax

 

−30

 

30

 

−51

 

48

CZK/GBP

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hedging reserve

 

135

 

−135

 

91

 

−91

Earnings after tax

 

−1

 

1

 

0

 

0

EUR/AUD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hedging reserve

 

97

 

−97

 

164

 

−164

Earnings after tax

 

−32

 

32

 

−36

 

37

EUR/SEK

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hedging reserve

 

94

 

−92

 

105

 

−100

Earnings after tax

 

−35

 

35

 

−22

 

18

EUR/PLN

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hedging reserve

 

−54

 

54

 

0

 

0

Earnings after tax

 

−52

 

52

 

−60

 

60

EUR/CZK

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hedging reserve

 

65

 

−65

 

69

 

−69

Earnings after tax

 

−38

 

38

 

−20

 

20

EUR/TWD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hedging reserve

 

77

 

−77

 

72

 

−72

Earnings after tax

 

−6

 

6

 

−10

 

10

EUR/BRL

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hedging reserve

 

8

 

−8

 

6

 

−6

Earnings after tax

 

−65

 

65

 

−20

 

20

EUR/HUF

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hedging reserve

 

0

 

0

 

0

 

0

Earnings after tax

 

−63

 

63

 

−54

 

54

GBP/USD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hedging reserve

 

61

 

−61

 

63

 

−63

Earnings after tax

 

1

 

−1

 

−2

 

2

4.2.2 Interest rate risk

Interest rate risk in the Volkswagen Group (excluding Volkswagen Financial Services subgroup) results from changes in market interest rates, primarily for medium- and long-term variable interest receivables and liabilities. Interest rate swaps and cross-currency interest rate swaps are sometimes entered into to hedge against this risk primarily under fair value or cash flow hedges, and depending on market conditions. Intragroup financing arrangements are mainly structured to match the maturities of their refinancing. Departures from the Group standard are subject to centrally defined limits and monitored on an ongoing basis.

Interest rate risk within the meaning of IFRS 7 is calculated for these companies using sensitivity analyses. The effects of the risk-variable market rates of interest on the financial result and on equity are presented, net of tax.

If market interest rates had been 100 bps higher as of December 31, 2018, equity would have been €131 million (previous year: €88 million) lower. If market interest rates had been 100 bps lower as of December 31, 2018, equity would have been €66 million (previous year: €24 million) higher.

If market interest rates had been 100 bps higher as of December 31, 2018, earnings after tax would have been €24 million higher (previous year: €76 million lower). If market interest rates had been 100 bps lower as of December 31, 2018, earnings after tax would have been €26 million lower (previous year: €64 million higher).

4.2.3 Commodity price risk

Commodity price risk in the Volkswagen Group (excluding Volkswagen Financial Services subgroup) primarily results from price fluctuations and the availability of ferrous and non-ferrous metals, precious metals, commodities required in connection with the Group’s digitalization and electrification strategy, as well as of coal, CO2 certificates and rubber.

Commodity price risk is limited by entering into forward transactions and swaps.

Commodity price risk within the meaning of IFRS 7 is presented using sensitivity analyses. These show the effect on earnings after tax of changes in the risk variable commodity prices.

If the commodity prices of the hedged nonferrous metals, coal and rubber had been 10 % higher (lower) as of December 31, 2018, earnings after tax would have been €197 million (previous year: €101 million) higher (lower).

4.2.4 Equity and bond price risk

The special funds launched using surplus liquidity and the equity interests measured at fair value are subject in particular to equity price and bond price risk, which can arise from fluctuations in quoted market prices, stock exchange indices and market rates of interest. The changes in bond prices resulting from variations in the market rates of interest are quantified in sections 4.2.1 and 4.2.2, as are the measurement of foreign currency and other interest rate risks arising from the special funds and the equity interests measured at fair value. As a rule, risks arising from the special funds are countered by ensuring a broad diversification of products, issuers and regional markets when investing funds, as stipulated by the Investment Guidelines of the Group. In addition, we hedge exchange rates when market conditions are appropriate.

As part of the presentation of market risk, IFRS 7 requires disclosures on how hypothetical changes in risk variables affect the price of financial instruments. Potential risk variables here are in particular quoted market prices or indices, as well as interest rate changes as bond price parameters.

If share prices had been 10 % higher as of December 31, 2018, earnings after tax would have been €16 million higher and equity would have been €4 million (previous year: €28 million effect on equity) higher. If share prices had been 10 % lower as of December 31, 2018, earnings after tax would have been €25 million lower and the equity €4 million (previous year: €108 million effect on equity) lower.

4.3 Market risk at Volkswagen Financial Services subgroup

Exchange rate risk in the Volkswagen Financial Services subgroup is mainly attributable to assets that are not denominated in the functional currency and from refinancing within operating activities. Interest rate risk relates to refinancing without matching maturities and the varying interest rate elasticity of individual asset and liability items. The risks are limited by the use of currency and interest rate hedges.

Microhedges and portfolio hedges are used for interest rate hedging. Fixed-rate assets and liabilities included in the hedging strategy are recognized at fair value, as opposed to their original subsequent measurement at amortized cost. The resulting effects in the income statement are offset by the corresponding gains and losses on the interest rate hedging instruments (swaps). Currency hedges (currency forwards and cross-currency interest rate swaps) are used to mitigate foreign currency risk. All cash flows in foreign currency are hedged.

As of December 31, 2018, the value at risk was €122 million (previous year: €167 million) for interest rate risk and €187 million (previous year: €165 million) for foreign currency risk.

The entire value at risk for interest rate and foreign currency risk at the Volkswagen Financial Services subgroup was €214 million (previous year: €167 million).