Development of the global economy
Our forecasts are based on the assumption that global economic growth will slow down somewhat in 2019. We still believe risks will arise from protectionist tendencies, turbulence in the financial markets and structural deficits in individual countries. In addition, growth prospects will be negatively affected by continuing geopolitical tensions and conflicts. We therefore anticipate weaker momentum than in 2018 in both the advanced economies and the emerging markets. We expect the strongest rates of expansion in Asia’s emerging economies.
Furthermore, we anticipate that the global economy will also continue to grow in the period from 2020 to 2023.
In Western Europe, economic growth is likely to slow down in 2019 compared with the reporting period. Resolving structural problems continues to pose a major challenge, as do the uncertain impacts of the United Kingdom’s planned exit from the EU.
In Central Europe, we estimate that growth rates in 2019 will be lower than those for the past fiscal year. The economic situation in Eastern Europe should stabilize further, providing the conflict between Russia and Ukraine does not worsen. The growth of the Russian economy is expected to lose some of its momentum.
For Turkey, we expect the growth rate to taper off further amid higher inflation. The South African economy will probably be dominated by political uncertainty and social tensions again in 2019 resulting, in particular, from high unemployment. Growth is therefore likely to remain at a low level.
We expect that gross domestic product (GDP) in Germany will increase slower in 2019 than in the reporting period. The situation in the labor market will probably remain stable and bolster consumer spending.
We assume that the economic situation in the USA will remain stable in 2019. GDP growth should be lower than in the reporting period, however. The US Federal Reserve could further raise the key interest rate throughout 2019. Economic growth is likely to continue to slow down in Canada and Mexico.
The Brazilian economy will most likely stabilize further in 2019 and record somewhat stronger growth than in the reporting period. Amid sustained high inflation, the economic situation in Argentina is expected to remain tense.
In 2019, the Chinese economy is expected to continue growing at a relatively high level, but will lose some of its momentum compared with prior years owing to the trade disputes with the USA. For India, we anticipate an expansion rate on a similar scale to the previous years. In Japan, growth is forecast to remain weak.